Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $676,848$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.93 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{857,437.9}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 137.6)}}\) (asimptote \(857,437.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,554$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,268.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 138.1)}}\) (asimptote \(41,268.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $148,771$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $420,434$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.91 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{396,058.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 100.2)}}\) (asimptote \(396,058.5\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,551$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(780 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,263.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 101.5)}}\) (asimptote \(11,263.0\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,916$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,123,000$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,735,785.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 129.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,735,785.9\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $126,203$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(9.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{133,306.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 107.7)}}\) (asimptote \(133,306.9\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $497,798$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $120,241$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.42 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{137,594.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 130.3)}}\) (asimptote \(137,594.6\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,398$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(136 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,563.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 128.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,563.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $45,277$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $650,055$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(5.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{934,573.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 154.5)}}\) (asimptote \(934,573.5\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $20,886$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(286 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,538.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 141.6)}}\) (asimptote \(28,538.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $130,950$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $118,045$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{151,460.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 127.5)}}\) (asimptote \(151,460.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,724$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,281.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 80.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,281.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,017$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $471,806$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{807,519.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 167.3)}}\) (asimptote \(807,519.6\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,739$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(71 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,756.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 202.3)}}\) (asimptote \(43,756.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $121,686$ on 2020-09-05
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,320$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(19.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,733.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 154.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,733.6\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $76$ on 2020-09-05
Best fit exponential: \(0.663 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{268.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 180.1)}}\) (asimptote \(268.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $818$ on 2020-09-05
